The gambler’s fallacy is a commonly seen cognitive bias among people who experience problem gambling. It involves mistakenly believing that past gambling outcomes can impact future events. However, the exact mechanisms that contribute to the fallacy are poorly understood. The present study examined the gambler’s fallacy in an experiment. A sample of 160 university students were randomly assigned to one of three groups, with each group receiving a different amount of information on past gambling outcomes.
It was found that the gambler’s fallacy was stronger when people were provided a small amount of information on past outcomes. It became weaker as the amount of information available increased. This was especially the case when the chances of winning were 50% or more. In addition, it was found that certain individual factors affected sensitivity to information changes, such as gender, lottery gambling experience, and cognitive abilities.
