The influence of typical return-to-player and house edge messaging on perceived chances of winning

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Author(s): Weiss-Cohen, Leonardo ; Palmer, Madison ; Torrance, Jamie ; Newall, Philip W. S.

Journal: Addictive Behaviors

Year Published: 2025

Date Added: September 02, 2025

Previous research has indicated that people who gamble often misunderstand return-to-player (RTP) information. The purpose of this study was to further examine whether RTP information inflates people’s perceived chances of winning compared to house edge (HE) or no information at all. The researchers carried out two studies with adult participants who had experience with online slot games. In Study 1, participants were from the UK, and in Study 2, participants were from the UK or the US. Participants were shown either an RTP message (“This game has an average percentage payout of 90%”), one of two different HE messages (“This game keeps 10% of all money bet” or “This game is programmed to cost you 10% of your stake on each bet”), or no information. Participants then rated their perceived chances of winning at a hypothetical slot machine.

Overall, a typical 90% RTP message inflated participants’ perceived chances of winning compared to no information at all and the two HE messages. But the HE messages did not perform better than no information. Participants with more severe problem gambling felt that they had higher chances of winning when no information was provided. This effect was not observed in the RTP or HE conditions.

Citation: Weiss-Cohen, L., Palmer, M., Torrance, J., & Newall, P. (2025). Never tell me the odds: Typical return-to-player information increases gamblers’ perceived chances of winning. Addictive Behaviors, 168, 108363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108363

Article DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.addbeh.2025.108363

Keywords: communication ; consumer protection ; messaging ; public health ; risk perception

Topics: Information for Operators ; Public Health

Conceptual Framework Factors: Environment - Culture of Social Responsibility ; Exposure - Marketing and Messaging ; Psychological Factors ; Resources - Harm Reduction, Prevention, and Protection ; Psychological - Judgement and Decision Making ; Gambling Exposure ; Gambling Resources

Study Design: Experimental: RCT (randomized controlled trial)

Geographic Coverage: United Kingdom ; United States of America

Study Population: People who played online slot games and were at least 18 years old (N= 6,602).

Sampling Procedure: Participants were recruited using Prolific. Study 1 recruited participants from the UK. Study 2 recruited participants from either the UK or the US.

Study Funding:

This study was funded by the University of Bristol’s Policy Support Fund and the University of Nottingham’s School of Psychology Quality Enhancement Fund.