Safer Gambling Theories of Change

Theory of change overview

Good evaluation requires a thorough understanding of how and why a programme, activity, or initiative works in practice to achieve its intended outcomes. A theory of change, often described as a “programme theory”, captures all those details in one diagram.

Benefits of a theory of change

A theory of change helps to:

• Articulate the different components of a programme, the logical connections between them, and the changes that are expected to occur because of their implementation.
• Identify the underlying theory and assumptions on which a programme is based.
• Make implied causality explicit.
• Draw a road map for a programme that defines its expected outcomes and identifies the inputs and activities that get it there.
• Provide a solid foundation and rich framework to guide the implementation of a programme as well as its evaluation.

Components of a theory of change

A theory of change explains how and why a programme leads to change by showing the causal chain that leads from its inputs through to its expected outcomes. A theory of change can be as broad or as specific as needed, depending on whether it is describing a small activity, a programme, a policy, or an organisation. Common components of a theory of change include:

• Situation – The situational context and need that sparked the creation of the programme
• Goals –The overall aims of the programme
• Audience – Who the programme is intended to reach and all groups who will directly benefit from the programme
• Inputs –The resources (time, personnel, funding) invested into a programme
• Activities – The major categories of activities run as part of a programme
• Outputs – The tangible products that are produced as a result of key activities
• Outcomes – The justifiable changes that are expected to result from a programme. This includes changes in behaviours, attitudes, and awareness, which should be able to be measured. Outcomes range from short to long-term.
• Assumptions – Theories, beliefs, and contextual factors on which the programme is based
• External factors – Factors that influence the programme that are beyond the control of its implementers

In addition to a visual model depicting these different components, an accompanying narrative can be added to a programme’s theory of change. A narrative is not necessary, but can add value by:

• Elaborating on components of the theory of change and explaining concepts in more detail.
• Adding background information about the programme that cannot be captured in the visual.
• Providing further information about the theories, assumptions, research evidence, and frameworks used to inform and guide the programme.

Adapted from: HM Treasury, 2020; Mayne, J. 2017; Rogers, P. 2014 

This is an example of a theory of change Greo created for The Safer Gambling Movement, an integrated suite of safer gambling programmes implemented by Ara and Beacon Counselling Trust in Great Britain. Theories of change can be visually represented in many ways to increase understanding.

Safer gambling theories of change

Featured below are examples of theories of change of safer gambling initiatives from around the world. These resources can inspire and inform your safer gambling evaluation plans.

Note: This symbol (♠) indicates a theory of change for a safer gambling initiative that is especially relevant to stakeholders of the National Strategy to Reduce Gambling Harms in Great Britain.